F-X Bidders Could Gain From Tsunami Damage

BEIJING — Enlargement of the Japanese F-X fighter program is under consideration as the repair of all 18 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries F-2B trainers damaged in the March 11 tsunami looks increasingly unlikely.

The defense ministry’s initial assessment — that it will be lucky to repair as many as three of the aircraft — also seems to raise the possibility of the F-X program being pursued more urgently. Lockheed Martin, Boeing and the Eurofighter consortium are competing for the order for 40-50 fighters, with the prospect of further production after the initial requirement — replacement of F-4EJ Phantoms — is met.

Just pulling apart the damaged 18 F-2Bs and examining them will cost ¥13.6 billion ($166 million), the ministry tells the Asahi newspaper.

The air force had 33 F-2Bs before 18 were submerged at Matsushima air base by the tsunami, according to Forecast International data (Aerospace DAILY, March 18). So repairs, if any, will leave only 15-18 available.

As a result, the country appears to have four choices: accept a reduction in aircraft numbers, build replacement F-2Bs, acquire Boeing F-15Ds from U.S. stocks, or add units to the F-X program.

Although there is no official comment on the matter, neither of the first two options looks easy.

Since the damaged aircraft are all two-seaters, the training fleet has taken a heavy hit; restoring its numbers should be a priority.

And while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is still building the last few F-2s before closing its production line this year, its suppliers have already stopped making parts and systems.

So placing an order for more aircraft would now be unusually costly — even if Japan wanted to spend more money on the 1990s model instead of moving on to a new type.

Indeed, the cost of restarting parts production is probably a reason behind the ministry’s bleak assessment, although it could presumably look at using some of its stock of spare parts to refit the damaged aircraft.Japan flies the F-15DJ, a close derivative of the F-15D, as a conversion trainer for its F-15J force. Potential issues with acquiring secondhand F-15Ds include availability, remaining fatigue life, and their suitability as replacements for the F-2Bs, which were used to train pilots for F-4EJs as well as F-2As.

As to the fourth option, the ministry has not raised the possibility with bidders of enlarging the F-X order to replace the F-2Bs, says an executive from one of the bidders, but it would not be expected to do so until it knew how many of the drenched fighters could be saved.

The aircraft types confirmed as competitors for the F-X order are the Lockheed Martin F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon and Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. Eurofighter is represented by BAE Systems in association with Sumitomo Corp.

Responses to a request for proposals are due by September. First deliveries are due in 2017, but Eurofighter and Boeing have warm production lines from which they could conceivably divert two-seaters ordered by other customers.

Restoration of fighters soaked in salt water may seem improbable, but in the 1990s the Greek air force recovered a Mirage 2000EG that had crashed at low speed into the sea on final approach. That aircraft was pulled from the water after three days and eventually put back into service.